Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The objective of this study was to predict the impact of EBR/GZR on the incidence of liver and kidney related complications compared with no treatment (NoTx) and pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (pegIFN/RBV) in patients with CKD stage 4/5 in Vietnam.
We developed a mathematical model of the natural history of chronic HCV, CKD, and liver disease. Efficacy of EBR/GZR and pegIFN/RBV were derived from the C-SURFER trial and a meta-analysis, respectively. We calculated lifetime cumulative morbidity and mortality rates, including incidence of decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and life expectancy.
Estimated lifetime incidence of DC was significantly reduced in patients receiving EBR/GZR (3.47%) compared to NoTx (18.14%) and pegIFN/RBV (9.01%). Estimated incidence of HCC was 1.02%, 21.64%, and 8.90%, and 1.02% in patients receiving EBR/GZR, NoTx, and pegIFN/RBV. EBR/GZR was estimated to extend life expectancy by 4.2 and 2.0 years compared with NoTx and pegIFN/RBV.
Our model predicted that EBR/GZR will significantly reduce the incidence of liver-related complications and prolong life in patients with chronic HCV GT1 infection and CKD compared with NoTx or pegIFN/RBV.